TODAYS PLAYS

Tennis: Pennetta -150, Simon +125

Hockey: Maple Leafs/Rangers OVER 5.5 (+110)

VANDERBILT/MISSISSIPPI STATE OVER 38

First glance here and you'd wonder why anyone would think the total might go over in this one. Two tough defenses, two challenged offenses. So what gives? Well look to last week. MSU put up 24 on LSU at Baton Rouge. They weren't explosive, but the Bulldogs moved methodically against a tough defense by pounding the run and mixing in Tyson Lee in the air. Vandy, while stout, has yielding yardage in their games - they've just been good at creating turnovers or limited opponents to FGs instead of TDs. Offensively, Vandy may start backup QB Mackenzi Adams if Nickson is unable to go. Good news for Vandy is that Adams looked good in relief against an even tougher Auburn defense last week. 13/23 for over 150 yards a a couple TDs + 49 yards rushing. My final examination here says this total is just a tad too low even for these two offenses. With playmaking defenses capable of scoring or creating short fields and defenses that can struggle a bit against the run, I think this one can squeak past the total and wnd up around 40-44 points.

NOTRE DAME TEAM TOTAL OVER 19

This is a leap of faith for sure because we just don't know if the Irish can play away from home. Their one road contest this season was a total debacle against Michigan State where they only scored 7 points. Outside of that game however, the Irish have been good for 21+ per game. The UNC defense has given up 20+ in three of their 5 games this season and that's to team that don't possess quite the firepower that Notre Dame has in their passing attack. Teams have been able to move the ball on the Tar Heels, but UNC has been great at taking the ball away with 12 INTs on the year. 3 came last week vs. Connecticut. Jimmy Clausen will need to keep the turnovers down for the Irish to score at least 20, but he's thrown 6 TDs and no picks in the last two weeks after going with 6 TDs and 6 picks the 3 weeks prior to that. If Clausen throws more TDs that picks, I think the Irish get this done and as a whole, I would not be surprised if they won the game as well.

11:00am CT Kickoff

1. ECU/Virginia OVER 44: ECU's defense has given up an average of 24 ppg and over 30 in each of the last two contests. Virginia's offense doesn't rank highly, but they did get untracked against Maryland last week as the Wahoos scored 31. ECU's offense should come in fresh and ready to put up points after a bye week. Both teams have had turnover problems at times, which always could aid this type of play. I'm expecting the total to finish in the mid 40s or higher.

1. PURDUE ML+105

Purdue's offense has been clinical in its precision to date, averaging over 33 ppg & upwards of 390 ypg. Still, there is room for improvement as QB Curtis Painter has a 1:1 TD/INT ratio at 3:3. Purdue is putting up over 250 yards in the air, while the Irish have given up just 215 ypg passing, but to the likes of Michigan State, Michigan & SD State. None of which can match Joe Tiller's spread offense. Notre Dame has been leaking with their run D as well, giving up over 140 ypg. Purdue RB Kory Sheets could have a big day. Defensively is where Purdue has struggled. The Boilers are giving up close to 430 ypg. Even a lost Notre Dame offensive unit can find success against that. At the end of the day, both defensives may be equally bad - but give the edge to Purdue offensively which should give the Boilers a hard fought win.

EP36's PIGNOSTICATOR: Outright Purdue win.

2. COLORADO ML +185

Last week's Wake Forest/FSU tilt gave us great insight into this week's game where a battle of solid defense's will eventually be won by the team with enough offense to squeak by. Wake hit 4/7 FGs to beat FSU 12-3 and we could be in store for an equally "offensive" offensive game this weekend. The Buffs are a bit weaker vs. the run than the Seminoles as FSU could exploit that for an advantage. Where Colorado should find success however is with QB Cody Hawkins and the passing game. Riley Skinner found enough success without mistakes against FSU to help the Demon Deacs move the ball and put points on the board. Hawkins will be charged with the same game plan for the Buffs. If Colorado can get Rodney Stewart loose at all, the Buffs could put some space between themseles and FSU. When looking at this, most things are equal with these teams - but the clear advantage goes to QB for Colorado and I expect Hawkins can make enough of a difference to slide the Buffs to a solid road win.

EP36's PIGNOSTICATOR: Colorado wins outright

3. SAN JOSE STATE ML +130

The books must think Hawaii is going to rediscover some magic from last year at some point. But this team is nothing close to last year's BCS busters. QB Tyler Graunke has thrown more INTs than TDs this season and the Rainbow Warriors are struggling to put up points w/out offensive guru June Jones at the helm. Couple in that Graunke is nursing an injury and it seems as though the Hawaii offense isn't in line to get untracked this weekend. San Jose State will have to improve its own offense after a lackluser performance vs. Stanford. The Spartans have had success running the ball though and that should serve them well as they average 131+ ypg against a Hawaii D that yields 150+ pg. Neither offense may light it up in this one, but I feel that San Jose State has the better D and that should help them get a win on the Big Island.

EP36's PIGNOSTICATOR: Straight up win for San Jose State

1. PENN STATE/TEMPLE OVER 54

Quite frankly, until someone provides as much as a speed bump to this Penn State offense, I think the over remains a solid option in their games. The Nittany Lions have been on fire offensively, averaging 55 ppg with a low of 45 vs. Oregon State a couple weeks back. They are equally deadly with the run & pass, putting up 273 ypg in the air & 263 on the ground. Should be a good match-up to exploit on a Temple D that allows 200+ ypg on the ground & was torched for 348 yards by Buffalo QB Drew Willy last week in a 30-28 Temple loss. I'd be stupified if Penn State didn't put up anywhere from 42-50 points on Temple. That leaves the Owls to account for 14 or more points to get this number over. Syracuse & Oregon State found ways to get 13 & 14 points respectively and the Owls behind QB Adam DiMichele should find just enough.

EP36'S PIGNOSTICATOR: 56 points or more.

2. WAKE FOREST ML +175

The Demon Deacons can play the no respect card here as the higher ranked team on the road against a Florida State team that has feasted on cupcakes. Wake has won two straight in this series, turning the tide on the former traditional power of the Seminoles. Bobby Bowden's crew is searching for respect, but may find that hard to come by against this well-coached Wake Forest team. Riley Skinner has been effective as ever, with a 74% completion rate and 5 TDs and 0 INTs. Christian Ponder seems to have steadied the FSU QB position, but his 360 yards combined against Chatanooga & W.Carolina is hardly reason to celebrate. Frankly this comes down to a known vs. unknown quantity. Wake beat what now looks like a better-than-expected Baylor team on the road handily and then held on at home against a game Ole Miss squad. Wake is unflappable and that should help on the road in this one. A nip & tuck affair like last year's 24-21 Wake win can be expected. I think the Demon Deacs get it done on the road.

EP36's PIGNOSTICATOR: Outright Wake Forest win.

3. UTAH/AIR FORCE OVER 51.5

A good one on-tap in the Mountain West with these two 3-0 squads. Utah put their stamp on a successful season early by beating Michigan on the road. The Utes have been rolling up the points ever since. Utah is averaging almost 42 ppg with 42 against UNLV two weeks ago & a staggering 58 against Utah State last week. Utah remains well-balanced, putting up almost 250 ypg with their aerial attack & another 160+ on the ground. Air Force was in a giving mood last week against Houston as they allowed QB Case Keenum to dominate with 362 yds and 4 TDs thru the air and another 75 on the ground. Utah QB Brian Johnson should be licking his chops at the prospect of going up against the Falcons D. Meanwhile, the Air Force offense remains a stout ground attack. 358 ypg is what Air Force is averaging through 3 games on the ground. Utah has been stout vs. the run, but look no further than their meeting with a similar ground attack in 2007 when facing Navy to see what could be in store for this one - the Utes surrendered 300+ yards to the Middies & 32 points in a 35-32 win. This match-up has been low scoring in the previous two years, but I'm looking for the offenses to have a better time of it this year. I expect the winner here to get into the mid 30s at least and the loser to keep pace in the mid to high 20s, which should be enough to get past the number.

EP36's PIGNOSTICATOR: Total in the Mid 50s or higher.

4. TCU/SMU OVER 51

The battle for the Iron Skillet as my alma mater, TCU, takes on June Jones' SMU Squad. The Horned Frog defense remains solid as they've held opponents to 8 ppg! Facing the aerial attack of SMU though will challenge any defense. SMU couldn't get untracked against Texas Tech last week as QB Bo Mitchell threw 5 picks. Tech trounced SMU, 47-3 as the Mustangs D continued to leak. SMU has given up 47 to Tech, 56 to Rice & 36 to FCS school, Texas State. That should give TCU plenty of opportunity to put up big #s offensively. The Horned Frog offense has been modest, averaging 157 ypg in the air & 200+ on the ground. SMU has stopped neither, yielding over 300 thru the air and 200 rushing per contest. I believe this game goes more along the lines of TCU dismantling of FCS Stephen F. Austin, a 67-7 win rather than a bit of a struggle vs. Stanford last week at 31-14. TCU should eclipse the 40 point mark in this one as the Ponies turn the ball over and generally fail on defense. Offensively with their pass only attack & likely playing from behind agani, SMU should be able to account for enough points to squeak this game past the number.

EP36's PIGNOSTICATOR: A total in the high 50s to low 60s.

1. SAINTS/REDSKINS OVER 42

Even with the Saints big play WR Marques Colston sidelined, I expect the points to rack up in this game. The Saints are versatile enough to adapt to his absence with Reggie Bush & Jeremy Shockey likely to get more touches in the passing game. The Saints still put up 24 on a tough Bucs D last week with Colston not doing much damage. The Skins D struggled against the run in their opener vs. the Giants, so the Saints may look to pound the ball a little more as well. For this game to go over the number, I think the Redskins offense is the key. The Saints are still suspect on D as they let Bucs crush them on the ground for 146 yards with both Earnest Graham & Warrk Dunn averaging more than 6 ypc! Clinton Portis & Ladell Betts surely will be licking their chops. If the Skins can establish the run, then we may get to see Jason Campbell at his best. Look for Campbell to test the Saints D with tosses to Santana Moss & Chris Cooley. If the Skins get their offense untracked after a lackluster opener, I expect both teams have the possibility of getting into the 20s in this game & getting the over done.

EP36's PIGNOSTICATOR: 44 points or more.

1. NAVY ML +110

Navy visits Duke this weekend in what should be another good display of offense & perhaps just as much, not a whole lot defensively. The Middies continue to rack up the ground yardage, averaging 452 per contest through 2 games. Already hitting on all cylinders, the offense gets a key cog back as QB Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada comes back from a hamstring injury. If Enhada is 100%, that allows backup QB Jarod Bryant to slip into action as another runner in Navy's mezmorizing option running attack. For Duke, they come off a tough 24-20 loss to Northwestern. The Blue Devils passing game (220 yd avg) looks to take advantage of Navy's swiss cheese pass D (328 yd avg) in this one. Duke has also found success on the ground, averaging almost 200 yards per game in its two contests. The Duke D has good #s, but they've played an average Northwestern squad & James Madison. As Navy has shown, their offense can liquify most defense not used to seeing their attack. It should be a nip/tuck affair, but I think if Navy can find some stops on D, their offense has plenty to get the win.

EP36's PIGNOSTICATOR: Navy to win outright.

2. PENN STATE/SYRACUSE OVER 50

This one I really like. The Nittany Lions have been rolling up big yards & posting BIG numbers offensively. Penn State is averaging a gaudy 55.5 ppg thus far & is equally balanced by land & air. Syracuse meanwhile has been in a giving mood defensively against some not-so-great offensive teams. The Orange were pounded for 42 points against Akron & 30 by Northwestern in their opener. The leaks are pleniful both on the ground (237 yards per) & air (241 yards per) for the SU defense. I expect Penn State to roll in this one & they should eclipse 42 points & maybe even go for 50 again. If Syracuse can toss in a TD or get to double digits, the OVER looks mighty fine here.

EP36's PIGNOSTICATOR: 54 points or more.

3. UTAH/UTAH STATE OVER 51

Another absolute mismatch that should lend itself to plenty of points. Utah kicked their offense into high gear against UNLV last week, hanging 42 on the Rebels. Utah has continued throwing well, putting up 260 yds per contest in the air & adding another 130 on the ground. Utah State conversely is struggling to stop anyone doing anything! The Aggies are yielding over 500 yds per game and had 66 put on 'em last week against Oregon in a 66-24 shellacking. Utah may not quite have the potency of the Ducks offense, but the Utes should have little trouble putting upwards of 40 points or more on the board. Utah State should get enough mercy scores from Utah to help this one get past the number.

EP36's PIGNOSTICATOR: Total in the High 50s.

4. SOUTHERN MISS ML +120

If not for a stunning win over Texas A&M in their opener, I'd dare say that Arkansas State would be the underdog in this clash. Instead, Southern Miss comes in as a 3 point UD. The Golden Eagles put up a game effort against Auburn last week, losing by 14. Southern Miss struggled to run against Auburn's stout D, but should find things more to their liking vs. Arkansas State. The big challenge for the Golden Eagles will be to stop the ASU rushing attack which has laid waste to a pair of opponents, averaging close to 350 ypg. Keep in mind, most of that damage was in an 83-10 win over Prarie View last week. I think the game can be won by Southern Miss on the defense as their troops forced four fumbles vs. Auburn & the unit has 3 picks already this season. Expect a battle, but better coaching should win out.

EP36's PIGNOSTICATOR: Southern Miss wins outright

1. BENGALS/RAVENS OVER 38

Anything below 40 with Cincinnati seems like a good place to take the over. Cincy ranked 26th in pass defense, so even rookie Joe Flacco could have some moderate success in his first NFL start. The Bengals were equally poor vs. the run, finishing 21st in yards allowed there. Not a whole lot of change on D for Cincy, so with a rookie head coach looking to make a splash - I think the Ravens can have success. With the Ravens still stout vs. the run, expect heavy doses of Carson Palmer to TJ & Ocho Cinco on Sunday. Turnovers should make their mark on this as well with Flacco at QB and an aggressive Ravens D.

EP36's PIGNOSTICATOR: 40 points or more

1. TULANE/ALABAMA OVER 45

'Bama could not have been more dominant against Clemson in Week 1. Power running. Accurate throwing from John Parker Wilson & a stifling defense that shut down Clemson's best weapon, the run. Sure, Tulane isn't going to light up the scoreboard - but I expect Alabama at home to do so. If they can hang 34 on a Top 25 team's defense, they should equal or I believe eclipse that vs. Tulane. The Green Wave will be happy to play after all the Hurrican Gustav distractions. They don't need to do much to get this over and probably won't, but 10-13 points may be enough. If 'Bama scores less than 35, it would be a huge disappointment even with scrubs probably in by late in the 3rd quarter/early 4th.

EP36's PIGNOSTICATOR: 45-48 points

2. AIR FORCE ML +140

A Mountain West match-up where I like the road dog with Air Force travelling to Wyoming. The Falcons continue to amass massive rushing yardage in each game, crushing Southern Utah for 400+ yards in their opener. Wyoming meanwhile needed a 4th quarter score to squeak past a so-so Ohio team, 21-20 last week. Wyoming was a Top 30 rush defense in '07, yet Air Force still racked up 250+ yards in a 20-12 home win. I think the defenses in this game are fairly even, but I like Air Force's versatile rushing attack better than what Wyoming showed offensively in Week 1. I like the dog to win outright in this one.

EP36's PIGNOSTICATOR:  Air Force wins outright

3. RICE ML +140

Rice travels to Memphis to take on the Tigers this weekend and boy oh boy, do I like the road dog again here. Rice convincingly crushed SMU in their opener, 56-27. The Owls were equally impressive by land and air, tallying 258 yards in the air & 208 on the ground. Their D was admirable against SMU's run 'n gun, holding them to just over 300 yards & creating 5 turnovers. Turnovers were the downfall of Memphis in their opener, a 41-24 loss to Ole Miss. The Tigers turned it over twice at inopportune times. Memphis also struggling to stop the run, giving up 216 yards on the ground to the Rebels. Some peeps liked Rice to push for a Bowl Game this year and this is the type of game they need to win if they are hoping to head in that direction. I think they get it done on the road.

EP36's PIGNOSTICATOR: Rice wins outright

4. MARYLAND/MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE UNDER 42.5

A low total in this one, but after what we saw in Week 1 from Maryland, I like it. The Terps struggled to put up 14 points on D2 Delaware, a team in a definite rebuilding phase after losing NFL'er Joe Flacco + more. Maryland did rack up 270+ yards on the ground vs. Delaware, but seemed to forget where the end zone was at times. QB Jordan Steffy was average at best with just 18 pass attempts & 2 of them complete to the wrong side. MTSU meanwhile seemed totally lost on offense. They ran the ball 50 times for a miserable 84 yards in a 31-17 loss to Troy. The Blue Hens defense was pretty solid, holding Troy to less than 33% conversions on 3rd down and just 300 yards of total offense. Seems like we'll see two struggling offensive units vs. capable defensive units. I'm thinking the score remains low, unless TOs spoil it.

EP36's PIGNOSTICATOR: Around 40

LONGSHOT PIGGY PARLAY: Air Force & Rice, PAYS 4.75:1

Hidey ho to anyone dumb enough to check out ye old blog. Gonna keep a running tally of my college football plays in here this year, so I can cry come Bowl Season at how poorly I did. Already made one pick this year, but it was only a contest play. This is the first real money play.

SUNDAY 8.31.08

COLORADO/COLORADO STATE OVER 56

With Colorado looking to play an uptempo style with a no huddle offense, I dig the chances of hitting the OVER here. The Buffs averaged 27 ppg in 2007 & that was with freshman Cody Hawkins still learning the offense & making plenty of mistakes. With a year under his belt, expect him to be more efficient while the scoring shouldn't miss a beat. Colorado may throw more with RB Hugh Charles gone. Although frosh Darrell Scott is rated as one of the best freshman in his class. The Buffs' D was very average in a competitive Big 12 conference and they have 8 starters back. The unit still allowed almost 30 ppg in 2007 & could be hurting in the secondary this year. Colorado State probably will not be able to take advantage of the Buffs' weaknesses with a new coach in the fold and a new starting QB. New coach Steve Fairchild is however familiar with the old Sonny Lubick program, having been a coordinator there previously - so the changeover may not be as bumpy as some. Still, CSU was an inconsistent offensive team in '07 & I don't see why that trend will not continue. The reason for the OVER however, a porous defense whose low points against last year was 23. I think Colorado comes out firing in this game & even though CSU is transitioning with a new staff, expect their best effort in this rivalry game. The OVER has hit in 9 of the last 12 in this series